INTERACTIVE TOOLS

Think through the risk yourself.

Abstract arguments about AI risk become concrete when you can move the numbers around. These free tools let you estimate the probability of catastrophe, see when experts expect AGI, and test how well you understand the field — no sign-up required.

Calculator

P(doom) Calculator

Set your own view on five key cruxes — timelines, alignment difficulty, deployment, catastrophe and recovery — and get a single probability of AI catastrophe, benchmarked against Hinton, Christiano, Carlsmith and Yudkowsky.

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Live Tracker

AGI Forecast Tracker

How close are we? Compare the most-cited AGI forecasts — the Metaculus community, prediction markets, frontier lab leaders and researcher surveys — on one interactive timeline that refreshes from live data.

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Quiz

AI Safety Literacy Quiz

Ten questions on the core ideas behind the headlines — alignment, instrumental convergence, deceptive alignment, interpretability and more. Get a score, every answer explained, and a reading list tailored to what you missed.

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These tools are built for clarity, not precision — they're a way to reason about deep uncertainty, and every figure links to a source. Prefer to read first? Start with the threat, browse the blog, or look up a term in the glossary.